I rethought some of my picks. Having followed the Oscars for several years (since Brandon started the pool) I know that there are several Oscar axioms. I was in danger of violating 3 such axioms with my previous picks. So recently I changed two. First, I can't get caught up in what the best nominee is. I just don't see the Academy rewarding yet another rap song, especially one with those particular lyrics. That leaves the song from Crash and the Dolly Parton song. More people have seen Crash, so it receives my vote.
Second, it would be a big mistake to go against Pixar. Undoubtedly more people have seen that short, and from what I have heard it is pleasant enough to win.
Interesting that Roeper is picking Crash for Best Picture too. I wonder if it is just to be different, because everything I have read indicates that Crash will fall short.