Picture-Brokeback Mountain...Despite Ebert's pick of Crash, I am going with the frontrunner. Too many other indicators say Brokeback will win. It will also probably receive 97% of the gay vote, which is no small number of the voting block. Another factor going against Crash is that a significant number of people did not like it.
Director-Ang Lee...The biggest lock of the night.
Adapted Screenplay-Brokeback Mountain...It's the other lock of the night.
Best Original Screenplay...Crash...Gotta give it something.
Actor-Philip Seymour Hoffman...He has given several great performances. Heath Ledger hasn't.
Actress-Reese Witherspoon...Because she might actually deserve it, and I think that people are sick of cross-gender roles being rewarded.
Supporting Actor-George Clooney...I'm not that confident about the supporting categories. But George gets the nod here because of the three (actually four) nominations. Matt Dillon could upset. And I didn't even mention Paul Giamatti.
Supporting Actress-Rachel Weisz...This one really gets my no confidence vote, as I see both Amy Adams and Michelle Williams as contenders here. If Williams wins, then we'll know early on in the show that it's going to be a Brokeback night.
Art Direction-Memoirs of a Geisha...I'm gonna win or lose based on how Memoirs performs.
Cinematography-Brokeback Mountain...Because it's the Best Picture contender.
Costume Design-Memoirs of a Geisha
Film Editing-Crash...It's the strongest picture on the list.
Makeup-The Chronicles of Narnia...It'll win because no one wants to vote for Star Wars.
Score-Brokeback Mountain...Best Picture overflow.
Song-In the Deep...One rap song already won this award. It won't happen again anytime soon.
Sound Editing-King Kong...pretty confident here.
Sound Mixing-Walk the Line...argh, this category is gonna kill me.
Visual Effects-King Kong...the third lock of the night.
Animated Feature-Wallace and Gromit...I ain't about to vote against Nick Park.
Animated Short-One Man Band...I ain't about to vote against Pixar.
Documentary Feature-March of the Penguins...Because Murderball didn't really connect with me.
Documentary Short-God Sleeps in Rwanda
Live Action Short- Six Shooter
Foreign Language Film-Tsotsi...Because some Jews will be turned off by Paradise Now.
These picks might change in the next two days, especially if I hear a convincing argument about the shorts. And I'm concerned that I should have Good Night, and Good Luck winning something.
