More important than a win is a nomination. The track record of Oscar voters is really all over the place. Just when you think they might have turned the corner, they vote for a film like Crash. The last few winners have been "edgier" than the usual Oscar fare. Which might mean a trend, or it might just mean that they didn't have a movie like The King's Speech. And don't forget the politics that is involved. If the nominee doesn't appear affable or doesn't say the right things... Right now, I would put The King's Speech at a 60% likelihood to win, based on the PGA win, and less on the Weinstein factor, which has fallen on hard times the last several years. The Social Network is at 39%, and the 1% is occupied by a film that would somehow sneak in thanks to the voting system (they rank the films in order when they vote). The SAG and DGA results will tell us more. A split with TSN winning director and TKS winning picture is a definite possibility.
And to Roger Ebert-you might want to look at Oscar history. It's been thirty years (the awful Ordinary People) since the Best Picture did not have a nomination for Best Editing.
And to steal a good summary of TKS' status as Oscar bait: "It's a movie about a (1) British (2) royal who overcomes (3) a disability and a (4) bad childhood to (5) lead the nation in (6) WWII and defeat (7) the Nazis."
